Estimating of Some Economic Indications of Fishery Resources in Libya

Abstract

Fish production development is the main axes of agricultural development necessary to face the growing food gap. Despite the availability of required economic and natural resources in Libya, the fishery productive capacity is not commensurate with those resources, which led to the failure in meeting the needs of local consumption, and a low self-sufficiency rate despite the population does not exceed 6 million people. This study aimed at analyzing the trend of the improvement of some economic indicators related to the production and consumption of fish, in addition to fish imports and exports and measuring the food gap and self-sufficiency, as well as determining periods of production adequacy and import coverage for domestic consumption by relying on a time series (1981-2013), which divided into two periods. The results showed an increase in general trend in production and consumption during the study periods, but the production capacity of fish was not sufficient for the annual needs, as the average period of the adequacy of production for daily consumption during the study period reached 222 days. Despite the rates of self-sufficiency increasing in general, it did not reach full sufficiency or achieve a surplus for only 3 years for the whole study period. The average period of import coverage for domestic consumption did not exceed 108 days. The study estimated the relationship between production as a dependent variable (Y) and consumption as an independent variable (X), the relationship of significance was proven in the simple regression model and the determination coefficient was 0.562, 0.633, and 0.612 for the total period and the first and second periods, respectively, reflecting that production response at an acceptable rate of change in consumption, and that consumption explains a large percentage of the change in the production.  Researchers assumed, based on previous assumptions and studies and the availability of data in this field, three independent variables represented in imports, income, and population were used in estimating multiple regression equations in their various linear, double logarithmic forms.  The attempts have shown that no image exists among them in its multiple forms has represented the relationship due to the presence of a fairly strong correlation between the independent variables representing the population and income which leads to the emergence of the problem of linear duplication, as well as the problem of self-correlation. An attempt has been made to tackle problems in various ways and to re-estimate using the stepwise method, whereby all variables except the one representing the population are excluded. The coefficient of determination was 0.709, 0.425, and 0.298 for the total of the first and second periods, respectively, reflecting the response of consumption at an acceptable rate to the change in the population of the total period, and that it interprets a large proportion of the change in consumption, as an important factor in increasing the demand for fish in the local market.