Forecasting The Revenues And Expenses of Libyan Public Hotels Using Box-Jenkins Models

A Case Study: Zliten Hotel

Abstract

This study aimed mainly to identify the extent and possibility of using one of the most important methods of time series and prediction to realistic time data from Zliten Hotel, which is one of the public hotels in Libya. The data that was dealt with are variables represented in the expenses and revenues of the hotel referred to. The Box-Jenkins method, known in the statistical literature for short as ARIMA, is widely used in the field of time series analysis. The Box-Jenkins method, known in statistical literature as the acronym ARIMA, is widely used in the field of time series analysis. It should be noted here that most of the statistical analyzes on the practical side were conducted using the statistical programming language R Core Team (2019), due to the features and capabilities available in this language that allow for conducting advanced statistical analyzes easily.    The data used in the analysis are monthly data for the variables under study in the period (2012-2016) AD. It is clear from the results of this study that the two chains are unstable. Also, there are no seasonal changes in these two time series, which is unusual in these data. As such chains have seasonal changes due to the nature of the work of hotels, which experience a boom in certain months and stagnation in other months during the year.