The Impact of Climatic Changes on Agricultural Productivity in Libya During The Period (1980-2010)

Abstract

Climate change has a strong effect on agricultural production, and consequently on food supply and security. We applied pairwise Granger causality to time-series data to examine the causal relationship between climatic conditions and the annual production of important crops in Libya between 1980 and 2010. The climatic variables were rainfall and temperature, and the crops were wheat, barley, onion, watermelons, tomatoes, and potatoes. There was bidirectional causality between temperature trend and potato production and unidirectional causality between temperature and watermelon and wheat production. There was no causality between the temperature on the one hand and the production of barley, onion, and tomatoes on the other hand. The results also show a unidirectional causality running from rainfall to potatoes and wheat, and a bidirectional relationship between rainfall and watermelon. There was no directional causation from rainfall to barley or tomatoes. Based on these findings, Libyan authorities should pay more attention to the planting of crop varieties that are resistant to drought and heat and focus on the development of such varieties.