Transformations in the Libyan Scene since 2011 and Their Implications for Egyptian National Security: A Security–Military Approach

Abstract

Since 2011, Libya has undergone deep security and military transformations that led to the fragmentation of state institutions and the emergence of a fragile security environment characterized by multiple armed actors and increasing regional and international interventions. These transformations have directly impacted Egyptian national security due to the geographical, social, and historical overlap between the two countries. This research aims to analyze how the security and military changes in Libya have affected Egyptian national security and to assess Egypt's response to these risks during the period from 2011 to 2020, with a particular focus on the period from 2014 to 2017. The study relied on a descriptive-analytical approach that focuses on documenting and analyzing the evolution of security threats associated with the Libyan conflict, such as the spread of terrorist organizations, arms and human trafficking across borders, as well as the growing influence of militias and the slow progress in political settlement processes. The study found that Egypt developed multi-layered security and military strategies, including enhancing border surveillance, increasing intelligence and regional cooperation, and adopting a preventive approach aimed at preventing the spread of chaos into Egypt. The study concludes that the continued lack of a comprehensive resolution to the Libyan crisis keeps security threats fluid and requires a comprehensive approach that extends beyond military dimensions to include political, economic, and developmental aspects, alongside supporting efforts to rebuild Libyan state institutions as a cornerstone for its stability and the stability of the entire region.