Urban Expansion and Its Role in the Spatial and Temporal Variability of Land Surface Temperature in the Area Extending from Shahhat to Al Bayda, Libya

Abstract

The study area has recently experienced significant environmental pressure as a result of increasing urbanization, uncontrolled urban expansion, inadequate planning practices, and limited environmental awareness. Accordingly, this study seeks to investigate the impacts of these changes on the region. The research primarily relied on geospatial technologies, namely Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and Remote Sensing (RS), for the analysis of satellite imagery. The significance of the study lies in monitoring and analyzing changes in Land Surface Temperature (LST) during the years 2000, 2010, and 2020. Supervised classification techniques were employed alongside the calculation of key indices, including the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Urban Built-up Index, and Land Surface Temperature Index. Furthermore, a Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) model was applied to examine the relationship between LST and the selected explanatory variables, providing insights into the influence of these factors on surface temperature patterns. In addition, Pearson’s correlation coefficient was used to assess the statistical relationships between LST and the studied indices. ASTER nighttime satellite imagery was utilized to detect Urban Heat Islands (UHIs) within the study area. Hot Spot Analysis (Hot Spot Analysis: Getis-Ord Gi) was also conducted to identify hot and cold zones and to locate significant thermal hotspots. The findings revealed several important outcomes, most notably the occurrence of the Urban Heat Island phenomenon and the identification of the most thermally stressed locations. Results showed substantial growth in the Urban Built-up Index, with urban areas increasing from 12.60 km² in 2000 to 97.74 km² in 2020, largely at the expense of green spaces. Consequently, land surface temperatures increased, accompanied by a marked intensification of urban heat island effects in the cities of Al Bayda and Shahhat.