The Impact of Food Import Dependency on Economic Growth in Libya
An Empirical Analysis in Light of GDP Evolution (2010–2023)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.59743/jaf.v9i2.851Keywords:
Economic Growth, Food Import Dependency, Gross Domestic Product, Inflation, Oil PricesAbstract
This study aims to analyze the impact of reliance on food imports on Libya’s economic growth over the period 2010–2023, against the backdrop of worsening food security challenges and high import dependency. To achieve this objective, the study employs a quantitative analytical approach, utilizing an Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression model based on annual time-series data. Key variables include the share of food imports in GDP, oil prices, and the inflation rate. The findings reveal a statistically significant negative relationship between increased dependence on food imports and real GDP growth, indicating that such reliance contributes to foreign exchange outflows and undermines the development of domestic productive sectors. The analysis also shows a positive effect of oil prices on economic growth, while inflation exerts a detrimental impact. Based on these results, the study recommends implementing strategic economic policies focused on enhancing local agricultural production, diversifying non-oil income sources, and rationalizing food imports—measures essential for strengthening food security and fostering sustainable economic growth in Libya.
Downloads
References
الحمادي، ن. (2020). الاستثمار في سلاسل القيمة الغذائية وتأثيره على النمو: دراسة تطبيقية على المغرب. مجلة التخطيط والتنمية، 45(1)، 88-105.
الخطابي، ع. (2019). الأمن الغذائي في ليبيا: التحديات والفرص، مركز الدراسات الاستراتيجية – طرابلس.
الشايب، س. (2021). دور السياسات الزراعية في ترشيد الواردات الغذائية: دراسة حالة تونس، مجلة الاقتصاد العربي، 29(2)، 112-130.
المنقوش، أ. (2022). الأزمات السياسية وأثرها على الأمن الغذائي في ليبيا. مجلة جامعة بنغازي للعلوم الإنسانية، 37(4)، 201-225.
البنك الدولي (World Bank Databank) — مؤشر: “GDP growth (annual %)”.
الرابط: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=LY
المصدر الأساسي: FAOSTAT — مؤشر: “Food Import Dependency Ratio”.
الرابط: https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/FDI :
منظمة أوبك — تقرير السوق الشهري → المتوسط السنوي لسلة أوبك.
الرابط: https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/data_graphs/40.htm
-البنك الدولي — مؤشر: “Inflation, consumer prices (annual %)”.
الرابط: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG?locations
البنك المركزي الليبي. (2023). التقرير السنوي للبيانات الاقتصادية. طرابلس: CBL.
الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء. (2023). بيانات التجارة الخارجية والواردات الغذائية. طرابلس: LCS.
Anderson, K., & Nelgen, S. (2012). Trade Barriers and Food Prices in Developing Countries. World Bank Policy Research Paper
Beblawi, H. (1987). The Rentier State in the Arab World. Arab Studies Quarterly, 9(4),(383–398).
FAO. (2020). The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World. Rome: FAO
FAO. (2022). Food Security and Nutrition: Building a Global Narrative Towards 2030. Rome: FAO.
FAO. (2023). FAOSTAT Database. Retrieved from https://www.fao.org/faostat
Frank, A. G. (1967). Capitalism and Underdevelopment in Latin America. New York: Monthly Review Press.
IBRD. (2021). Food Prices and Economic Growth in Fragile Economies. World Bank Report-
Ricardo, D. (1817). On the Principles of Political Economy and Taxation. London: John Murray.
Solow, R. M. (1956). A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70(1),( 65–94). DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/1884513
Timmer, P. (2015). Food Security and Scarcity: Why Ending Hunger is So Hard. University of Pennsylvania Press. DOI: https://doi.org/10.9783/9780812290516
World Bank. (2023). Libya Economic Monitor. Washington, DC: World Bank Group
IMF. (2021). Glossary of Economic Terms
Central Bank of Libya. (2023). Annual Economic Reports. DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400250705.002
Sachs, J. D., & Warner, A. M. (1995). Natural Resource Abundance and Economic Growth. NBER Working aper. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3386/w5398
Krugman, P. (1987). The Narrow and Broad Arguments for Free Trade. American Economic Review.
Lewis, W. A. (1954). Economic Development with Unlimited Supplies of Labo DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9957.1954.tb00021.x
The Impact of Food Import Dependency on Economic Growth in Libya: An Empirical Analysis 2010–2023
Data Sources
World Bank Databank: For GDP and inflation data.
FAOSTAT: For the food import ratio
OPEC Annual Statistical Bulletin: For oil prices
Central Bank of Libya: For verification of local indicators
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
Categories
License
Copyright (c) 2025 محمد امحمد الأبيض
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
