The impact of fluctuations in international oil prices on the balance of imports in the Libyan economy (Standard analytical study for the period 1980-2016)

Abstract

The study aims to analyze and measure the economic impact of fluctuations in oil prices in the international market on the balance of commodity imports in the Libyan economy using annual data for the period (1980 - 2016). - Peron) to determine the stability of variables and determine the degree of integration of each time series, the co-integration test according to the Angel and Granger two step method, the Error Correction Model, and the Granger Causality Test to test the direction of The causal relationship between the two variables

      Where the results of the tests showed that the two variables are stable in the first difference, as well as indicated the existence of an integrative relationship between the two variables of the study in the long term, and the results of the error correction model showed that imports correct their equilibrium imbalance at a rate of 24% during one year, and the results of the study indicated that there is a single causal relationship The trend of world oil prices towards the balance of imports.

    The results of the study also concluded that there is a direct statistically significant effect in the long term between international oil prices and the balance of imports in the Libyan economy throughout the study period, while it had no significant effect in the short term.