Early prediction of the probability of stumbling and financial failure in Libyan commercial banks using the Altman model,

A study of its application to the Jumhouria Bank during the period (2013-2023)

Abstract

    This study aimed to identify the concept of financial failure as well as the stages it passes through, in addition to determining the extent of the ability of the Altman model to early predict the possibility of financial failure in Libyan commercial banks. The EVIEWS10 statistical program was also used to analyze the annual financial statements of the main Jumhouria Bank over ten consecutive years during the period from (2013-2023) in order to achieve the desired results of the study. The study continued with a set of results, the most important of which are: The study showed that in the years (2018 and 2019) the Altman model fell within the period that expresses the distance from financial failure, and this is consistent with the financial indicators, including an increase in net income and a decrease in the book value of debts, which indicates The bank is far from being a financial failure during these two years, and the study also demonstrated that the Altman model is highly effective in early detection of the possibility of financial Failure occurring at the Republic Bank under study.